ITALY’S MENSWEAR ISN’T IN CRISIS. IT’S FACING A RECKONING

It happens in the space between a handshake and a hemline. In Florence, inside the Fortezza da Basso, the season’s first major menswear appointment doubles as a thermometer, measuring mood, money, and a certain kind of courage. Pitti Uomo 109 is running on an energy that feels almost stubborn. That matters, because the numbers behind Italian menswear aren’t dramatic but they are decisive.

THE YEAR THE NUMBERS WHISPER, AND LEATHER REFUSES TO

The backdrop is a year that begins under pressure. Confindustria Moda describes 2025 as marked by high uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, market volatility, and a renewed turn to protectionism—particularly from the United States—with no concrete signs of a rebound. The result isn’t a crash, but a continuation of the slowdown already visible in 2024. In this scenario, Italian menswear is expected to close 2025 at about €11.2 billion, down 2.1% year over year, still representing 19.3% of the turnover of Italy’s textile and apparel supply chain. Nearly every menswear subsegment is expected to decline, with one pointed exception that reads less like a footnote than a clue: leather apparel.

Zooming out, the curve tells a story of recovery, then recalibration. After the pandemic low of €8.17 billion in 2020, menswear climbed to a peak of €11.85 billion in 2023, then slipped to €11.43 billion in 2024, and to an estimated €11.18 billion in 2025. What changes now is the tone. Confindustria Moda’s table shows not only easing revenue, but also a slight retreat in the engine room: production value is projected at €4.63 billion in 2025, and final consumption at €5.84 billion, both modestly down versus 2024. It reads like a sector learning to breathe differently and asking itself an uncomfortable question: in an era of cautious consumers and cautious geopolitics, what does menswear still dare to promise, and to whom?

PITTI UOMO 109, A REAL-TIME REALITY CHECK

Against that backdrop, Pitti Uomo’s role becomes more than symbolic. The fair frames this edition as a platform designed to read shifting markets and evolving desires across established and emerging geographies. Pitti Uomo 109 runs Jan. 13–16, 2026, in Florence.

As the fair nears its close, the most meaningful signal is buyer quality. At noon on Jan. 15, CEO Raffaello Napoleone reported that foreign-buyer attendance was tracking in line with last January’s result, when international buyers hit 5,000.

This year, Italian buyers are slightly down and are expected to land around 7,600. The subtext matters as much as the count: when people still travel to buy in an anxious market, they aren’t shopping for fantasy. They’re shopping for evidence.

The geography of those buyers is the tell. Buyers increased from the United Kingdom, the United States, the Netherlands, Turkey, Japan, and Greece, while Germany, Spain, and France were slightly down. Nordic Europe as a bloc—Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland—is up decisively. China held steady, with a balance between Hong Kong and mainland presence. Taiwan grew, and South Korea eased after a long rise. From farther afield, the fair registered strong participation from Brazil, Mexico, Israel, and Canada, as well as Central Asian states that act as bridges between Europe, Russia, and South Asia. There was also a Mediterranean return via Lebanon and Egypt, and a stronger Middle East presence including the UAE and Qatar.

Supply-side confidence is visible, too. The show hosts 758 exhibitors across fashion and accessories and includes roughly 30 fragrance brands. The new Hi Beauty focus on experimental perfumery isn’t a side project. It’s a hint: menswear’s next growth lane may be what’s worn on the skin, not only on the shoulders.

Napoleone’s line, delivered with pragmatic optimism, captured the atmosphere: “No one is hiding the difficulties. Pitti is the moment to show up at our best, regain confidence, and face the season with determination.” The fair also underscored institutional attention, with a government visit and a promotional push from Italy’s trade agency. A political signal that matters when production is under pressure.

WHAT MENSWEAR IS LEARNING, RIGHT NOW

The cliché says menswear is conservative. The data suggests something sharper: menswear is disciplined. It cuts faster when uncertainty rises. It rewards supply chains that can deliver quality and speed and it punishes anything that feels like dead stock disguised as heritage.

Three questions hang in the air in Florence. First, can Italy protect its export engine while non-EU demand softens and non-EU sourcing accelerates? Second, can the traditional store rebound be sustained, or is it a temporary relief rally in a market still dominated by chains? Third, does the next chapter of menswear growth come from categories where Italy already has leverage — leather, tailoring, knitwear — or from adjacent territory like fragrance, where identity is built molecule by molecule?

If there’s a lesson in these days at Pitti, it’s that confidence has become a product in itself. Quiet luxury is still here. So is quiet anxiety.